18 July 2011 at 08:30
22 July 2011
Trieste - Italy
LB (Main Lecture Hall)
Directors: Adam Sobel, In-Sik Kang, Fred Kucharski, Ricardo Farneti
Future climate projections are of enormous social-economic interest, particularly in developing countries where economies often rely heavily on agriculture that is most directly influenced by climate change. Intercomparison projects such as CMIP5 and IPCC/AR5 simulations provide an excellent framework and deliver datasets to analyze projected future climate changes. These projects depend heavily on simulations with comprehensive General Circulation models (GCMs). Some aspect of projections is “robust”, meaning that a majority of models agree on them, while others are not. Our confidence in robust features is greater than our confidence in non-robust features, but in both cases we need to understand the physics of the climate signal in question.
One expects that the most robust projected changes do not depend sensitively on the details of model physics and numerics, so reduced-complexity models of the climate system should also be able to reproduce them. When such changes can be captured with a hierarchy of models of different complexity, our understanding of and confidence in the simulated changes both increase. For changes which are not robust, reduced-complexity models may be useful in understanding the nature of the sensitivities to model details, or in understanding the different mechanisms acting in subsets of comprehensive models.
The Workshop will bring together scientists and graduate students with interests in modeling and observations of all aspects of climate science including atmospheric, oceanic and land-surface processes. The primary focus of the Workshop is understanding the atmospheric general circulation and its projected future changes. As a means to this end, we will discuss results from the full hierarchy of models with different degrees of complexity. Methodological questions about what simplifications are appropriate for addressing particular problems will also be addressed.
Primary Workshop Goals:
1. Understanding the global climate system and climate variability and changes using all kinds of models ranging from comprehensive GCMs and simplified models to conceptual models based on observations.
2. Documentation and deeper understanding of those aspects of climate projections that are robust in multi-model ensembles (e.g., CMIP5, AR5 simulations) and thus targets for simpler models, with particular emphasis on those changes potentially affecting global climate.
3. Comparison of results relevant to both robust and non-robust signals from models across the hierarchy, including comprehensive GCMs as well as idealized GCMs-3D models with full dynamical cores but reduced physics, and often simplified boundary conditions, and highly idealized models such as used for theoretical studies, often with all simplifications above plus additional ones (e.g., axisymmetric, linear, reduced vertical structure etc.).
4. Development and testing ideas of a climate prediction system using hierarchical models by, e.g. generating a number of ensembles and long hind cast data.
5. Providing the intermediate complexity ICTP GCMs (Full but simplified-physics AGCM and CGCM, ‘SPEEDY’ models) to interested participants, including tutorials to aid initiatives to perform a state-of-the-art research.
Call For Papers
For those interested in making an oral or poster presentation during the Workshop, a one-page abstract (size A4) should be uploaded directly to the on-line application. (Please upload file attachments in .pdf). The time available for contributed oral presentations will be very limited; some authors who submit abstracts for oral presentation may be asked to present a poster instead
Macroturbulence equilibration in the atmosphere and ocean 50'
The relationship between the speed and the latitude of a barotropic eddy-driven jet 20'
A simple interpretation of the seasonality in the expansion of the Hadley cell and the shift of the eddy-driven jet in response to climate change forcing 20'
A dynamical interpretation of the poleward shift of the jet streams in global warming scenarios 20'
Upward shift of the atmospheric circulation in response to climate warming 20'
Changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperature in response to increased greenhouse gases in simple and complex models of the atmosphere and ocean. 20'
Chairperson: Morning Session Chair: Pablo Zurita
Fidelity and Predictability of Decadal Climate Variations in ECHAM/MPIOM: Impact of Different Ocean Reanalyses 20'
A mechanism of MJO Northward Propagation during Boreal Summer: Cumulus Momentum Transport 30'
Hierarchical MJO modeling 40'
Chairperson: Morning Session Chair: Nili Harnik
Chairperson: Morning Session Chair: Michela Biasutti
A general theory for the spatial and transient behavior of the SPCZ 20'
Aspects of the tropical-extratropical interaction in a simplified sector coupled climate model 20'
Ekman heat transport for slab oceans 20'
The importance of numerical time-stepping errors 20'
Chairperson: Morning Session Chair: Masahiro Watanabe
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