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Category: List of Bases 2009 2009 ICTP activities in Trieste ICTP activities in Trieste
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lecture

Start Time:

28 September 2009 at 09:00

Ends On:

10 October 2009

Location:

Trieste - Italy

Venue:

AGH (Kastler Lecture Hall)

Organizer(s):

Directors: V.I. Keilis-Borok, G.F. Panza, A.A. Soloviev

Material:

Monday, 28 September 2009

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:40
OPENING
40'


  10'
Prof. K. R. Sreenivasan  (The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics)
  10'
Prof. V. Keilis-Borok  (International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
  10'
Prof. G.F. Panza  (University of Trieste; The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics)
  10'
Prof. A. Soloviev  (International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
09:55
10:40
Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. Part I. State of the Art
45'
Prof. V. Keilis-Borok
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
12:00
REGISTRATION
01h20'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)


REGISTRATION FORMALITIES (Fermi Building)
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
What do we know about Earthquakes and their Sequences?
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
14:25
15:10
A Limited Power-law for the Aftershock Decay Rate. Part I
45'
Dr. C. Narteau
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
15:20
16:05
We Need Diversified and More Accurate Data
45'
Prof. M. Caputo
Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza"
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
18:00
Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises
01h30'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, P. Shebalin, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E. Zuccolo
18:00
19:30
GROUP A - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
01h30'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, P. Shebalin, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E. Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Tuesday, 29 September 2009

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Premonitory Long-range Activation of Seismicity
45'
Prof. P. Shebalin
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
09:55
10:40
Reverse Tracing of Precursors within Earthquake Chains
45'
Prof. P. Shebalin
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Measuring Variability of an Earthquake Sequence
50'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
16:00
Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises
02h30'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, P. Shebalin, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
16:00
16:30
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
17:00
Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises
30'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, P. Shebalin, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
17:00
18:30
GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
01h30'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, P. Shebalin, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:00
21:00
Get Together
02h00'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Terrace)
Wednesday, 30 September 2009

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
A Limited Power-law for the Aftershock Decay Rate. Part II
45'
Dr. C. Narteau
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
09:55
10:40
Inverse Retrospective Problems of Thermal Evolution of the Earth Interior: Numerical Techniques. Part I
45'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Inverse Retrospective Problems of Thermal Evolution of the Earth Interior: Numerical Techniques. Part II
50'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Morphodynamics of Dune-fields
45'
Dr. C. Narteau
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
14:25
15:10
Early Aftershock STatistics (EAST) Helping to Reveal High-stressed Areas
45'
Prof. P. Shebalin
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
15:20
16:05
GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
45'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, P. Shebalin, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
16:30
17:30
GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
01h00'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, P. Shebalin, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
17:45
19:30
GROUP A - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
01h45'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, P. Shebalin, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Thursday, 1 October 2009

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Phenomenology of Earthquake Occurrence. Part I: Characterization of Observations
45'
Prof. A. Correig
Universitat de Barcelona
09:55
10:40
Phenomenology of Earthquake Occurrence. Part II: Quantification of Observations
45'
Prof. A. Correig
Universitat de Barcelona
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Phenomenology of Earthquake Occurrence. Part III: Statistical Inferences
50'
Prof. A. Correig
Universitat de Barcelona
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Inverse Retrospective Problems of Thermal Evolution of the Earth Interior: Applications. Part I
45'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
14:25
15:10
Inverse Retrospective Problems of Thermal Evolution of the Earth Interior: Applications. Part II
45'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
15:20
16:05
Pattern Recognition Methods and Algorithms
45'
Prof. A. Soloviev
International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
19:30
Pattern Recognition - Exercises
03h00'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, P. Shebalin, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Friday, 2 October 2009

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
On the Power Law Statistical Distribution of Observations. A Tutorial
45'
Prof. A. Correig
Universitat de Barcelona
09:55
10:40
Precursory Activity. A Physical Approach
45'
Prof. A. Correig
Universitat de Barcelona
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Lake Sediments: Recorders of Historic and Pre-historic Earthquakes
50'
Prof. A. Agnon
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes and Seismic Hazard Assessment
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
14:25
15:10
Lessons From Katrina and the Mumbai Flood: How Human Systems Affect Resilience, for Better and for Worse
45'
Prof. C. Paskal
The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London; The School of Communications and Management, K
15:20
16:05
Application of the Pattern Recognition Techniques to Earthquake-prone Areas Determination
45'
Prof. A. Soloviev
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
19:30
GROUP A - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises
03h00'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Saturday, 3 October 2009 (Saturday)

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
12:00
GROUP B - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises
03h00'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
10:30
10:45
Coffee Break
15'
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Modeling of Block Structure Dynamics and Seismicity
45'
Prof. A. Soloviev
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
14:30
18:45
Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Exercises
04h15'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
16:30
16:45
Coffee Break
15'
Monday, 5 October 2009

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Archaeoseism: Earthquakes of the Past Recorded by Man-made Structures
45'
Prof. A. Agnon
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
09:55
10:40
Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. Part II. Yet Untapped Possibilities
45'
Prof. V. Keilis-Borok
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Disaster Prediction and Civil Preparedness
50'
Prof. E. Laor
University of Haifa
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Spherical Block-and-Fault Model: Description of Different Modifications
45'
Dr. V. Rozenberg
Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
14:25
15:10
Spherical Block-and-Fault Model: Application to Simulation of Global Seismicity
45'
Dr. V. Rozenberg
Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
15:20
16:05
Earthquake Prediction: Problem and Practical Solutions
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
19:30
GROUP A - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
03h00'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Tuesday, 6 October 2009

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs for Intermediate-term Predictions and Seismic Hazard Assesment (Catalogs and Catalog errors; Randomization; Systematic Error in the Current Italian Catalog)
45'
Dr. A. Peresan
University of Trieste
09:55
10:40
Intermediate-term Middle-range Earthquake Prediction: Real-time Testing in Italy and Surrounding Regions (Including ASI-SISMA Project, CSEP Testing and Analysis of Predictions for l?Aquila Earthquake)
45'
Dr. A. Peresan
University of Trieste
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Plate Motions and Tectonic Asymmetry: Insights for Seismicity. Part I
50'
Prof. C. Doglioni
Universita\' degli Studi di Roma \'La Sapienza\'
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:20
Plate Motions and Tectonic Asymmetry: Insights for Seismicity. Part II
50'
Prof. C. Doglioni
Universita\' degli Studi di Roma \'La Sapienza\'
14:30
15:15
Disaster Manager\'s Priority: First Shock or Last Aftershock?
45'
Prof. E. Laor
University of Haifa
15:30
16:00
GROUP B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
30'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
16:00
16:30
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
19:30
GROUP B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
03h00'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Wednesday, 7 October 2009

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Towards a Society Resilient to Earthquake: Neo-deterministic Time-variable Seismic Hazard Assessment. Part I
45'
Prof. G.F. Panza
University of Trieste; The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
09:55
10:40
Towards a Society Resilient to Earthquake: Neo-deterministic Time-variable Seismic Hazard Assessment. Part II
45'
Prof. G.F. Panza
University of Trieste; The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
A Model of Earthquake Clustering Based on Structural Relaxation
50'
Dr. E. Jagla
Centro Atomico Bariloche, Argentina
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. Part III. Analysis of the Outcome of Presidential and Mid-Term Senatorial Elections in the U.S.
45'
Prof. V. Keilis-Borok
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
14:25
15:10
Practice of Predicting Large Earthquakes on Global and Regional Scales
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
15:20
16:05
Application of the Block Structure Modeling to Study Relation between Geodynamics and Seismicity
45'
Dr. I. Vorobieva
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
19:30
GROUP A - The Algorithms M8 and Mendocino Scenario - Computer Exercises
03h00'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Thursday, 8 October 2009

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Premonitory Seismicity Patterns for Moderate Size Volcanic Earthquakes (Analysis of Seismicity Patterns and CN Application at MT. Vesuvius)
45'
Dr. A. Peresan
University of Trieste
09:55
10:40
The Error Diagrams in Space-time Earthquake Prediction
45'
Prof. G. Molchan
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Earthquake Forecast/Prediction: Problem of Verification
50'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Study of Seismic Regime in the Alps and Dinarides Junction Zone: Block Structure Modeling and Historical Observations
45'
Dr. I. Vorobieva
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
14:25
15:10
From Large-Scale-Sudden-Disasters Planner\'s Desktop: For the Foreseen Future - Nothing but Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
45'
Prof. E. Laor
University of Haifa
15:20
16:05
Earthquake Forecast/Prediction: Accuracy and Limitations
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
17:30
Poster Session
01h00'
17:30
19:30
GROUP B - The Algorithms M8 and Mendocino Scenario - Computer Exercises
02h00'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Friday, 9 October 2009

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
The Fractal/Multifractal Description of Seismicity. Part I
45'
Prof. G. Molchan
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
09:55
10:40
The Fractal/Multifractal Description of Seismicity. Part II
45'
Prof. G. Molchan
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Structural Relaxation and its Relation with Non-trivial Frictional Properties
50'
Dr. E. Jagla
Centro Atomico Bariloche, Argentina
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Similarity and Differences in Sequences of Earthquakes, Solar Flares, and Starquakes
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
14:25
15:10
Prediction of a Subsequent Strong Earthquake
45'
Dr. I. Vorobieva
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
15:10
15:20
10'
15:20
16:00
GROUP A - The Algorithms M8 and Mendocino Scenario - Computer Exercises
40'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
16:00
16:30
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
17:05
GROUP A - The Algorithms M8 and Mendocino Scenario - Computer Exercises
35'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
17:15
19:30
GROUP B - The Algorithms M8 and Mendocino Scenario - Computer Exercises
02h15'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Saturday, 10 October 2009 (Saturday)

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
12:15
Final Consultations, Distribution of the Software
03h15'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
10:30
10:45
Coffee Break
15'
12:15
13:30
LUNCH
01h15'
13:30
15:30
Final Consultations, Distribution of the Software
02h00'
V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva, E.Zuccolo
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
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