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Start Time:
29 September 2008 at 09:00
Ends On:
10 October 2008
Location:
Trieste - Italy
Venue:
LB (Lecture Room C; Main Lecture Hall on 8,9 and 10 October)
Organizer(s):
F. Mesinger, S.C. Chou, F. Giorgi
Description:
As a sequel to successful ICTP 2002 and 2005 activities, the purpose of the 2008 Colloquium is to facilitate adoption and use of a current state-of-the-art limited area model by participants, take stock of the progress made since 2005, and address issues of active research aimed at advancing as well as understanding the predictive abilities of limited area models.
Overall purpose and specific topics:
Regional or local atmospheric models are a standard tool for prediction of weather at a region or a local area more accurately than this is done by various global models, and are accessible and useful to a wide variety of users with modest computer resources. Yet, how much and what type of improvements over the driver global models can be obtained and for how long remain questions with many unresolved issues.
This is to be achieved through the following combination of activities:
I. A seven-day workshop on "Design and Use of Regional Weather Prediction Models".
This workshop will include tutorial lectures on the design of regional weather prediction models, emphasizing several features of active research, such as representation of
topography, the parameterization of convection and/or cloud microphysics, land-surface/ boundary layer modelling. The design of a specific model, the Eta Model, widely used by
the research and operational community, will be emphasized, and participants will receive a copy of a recently updated version of the Eta. The workshop will include lab sessions in which students will be taught to install and run the model, and will be encouraged to perform experiments relevant to a specific region or a model feature.
II. A three-day conference on "Current Efforts Toward Advancing the Skill of Regional Weather Prediction. Challenges and Outlook".
The conference will include invited and contributed papers highlighting some of the following topics:
- Operational and data considerations: limited area systems, including limited area ensembles, current directions;
- Basic numerical design: expectations and results from various choices pursued -- grid point Eulerian/
semi-Lagrangian, conservation/finite-volume issues, nested spectral, stretched grids and variable resolution approaches, other;
- Open questions of the numerical design: nonhydrostatic, how and when; vertical
coordinate/topography, lateral boundary conditions;
- Resolution vs domain size, convergence issues; benefits from "local" vs regional models;
- Physical parameterizations: convection/ explicit cloud physics; boundary layer/subgrid-scale transports;
- Regional weather predictability: value added by a limited area model, downscaling.
"Upscaling"? Limited area ensembles. Storm-scale prediction – how successful is it? Verification issues.
Program:
- Third ICTP workshop on "The Design and Use of Regional Weather Prediction Models",
29 September – 7 October 2008;
- Third ICTP conference on "Current Efforts Toward Advancing the Skill of Regional
Weather Prediction. Challenges and Outlook", 8-10 October 2008.
Material:
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Multi-scale modeling of the atmosphere – An overview
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Akio Arakawa (University of California, Los Angeles, USA) |
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A near finite-volume Eta and a case of severe zonda downslope windstorm
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F. Mesinger (NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD) |
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Multi-point explicit differencing (MED) for time integrations of the wave equation
30'
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Celal S. Konor (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO) |
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COSMO model and its implementation at the Italian Meteorological Service
30'
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Lucio Torrisi (Italian Meteorological Service, Rome, Italy) |
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A three-dimensional anelastic model based on the vorticity equation
30'
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Joon-Hee Jung (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO ) |
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Inclusion of time-dimension in the NCEP's 3DVAR data assimilation system
30'
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Miodrag Rancic (NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD) |
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On the impact of radar rainfall data assimilation on short-range QPF
30'
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Christian Keil (Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany:) |
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Initialization of the Eta Model using a backward-first version of the iterative Matsuno style scheme
30'
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Lazar Lazic (University of Belgrade, Serbia) |
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Testing the land-surface/surface-layer parameterizations, and land-surface PBL interaction on local scales
30'
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Michael Ek (NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD) |
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Ensemble forecasting at ARPA
30'
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Andrea Montani (ARPA-SIMC Servizio Idro-Meteo-Clima, Bologna) |
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Multi-model ensemble for short-range forecast
30'
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José A. Garcia-Moya (Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Madrid, Spain) |
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Short-Range Ensemble Prediction using Eta model over South America
30'
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Josiane Bustamante (CPTEC/INPE, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Brazil) |
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Eta model simulation of winter katabatic events over the Terra Nova Bay area, Antarctica
30'
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Sandra Morelli (University of Modena and Reggio E., Modena, Italy) |
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The effect of stratification on the roughness length and displacement height
30'
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Sergej Zilitinkevich (University of Helsinki, Finland) |
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Sensitivity tests and evaluation of near surface wind forecast in Northeast Brazil
15'
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André Lyra, (CPTEC/INPE, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) |
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Simulation of Modified land cover to the effect of Urban Heat Island in Jakarta, Indonesia
15'
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Nurdin Irwandi et al., (Sylah Kuala University, Indonesia ) |
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Evaluation of Eta model forecasts with parameterized convective momentum fluxes for a rainy period in southeast Brazil
15'
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Sin Chan Chou et al. (CPTEC/INPE, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Brazil) |
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Model convective and stratiform precipitation partition dependence on horizontal resolution
15'
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Jorge L. Gomes (CPTEC/INPE, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Brazil) |
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Numerical Simulation of the first CAT 5 cyclone in the Arabian Sea with a mesoscale model
15'
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Ramakrishna Surireddi (Andhra University, India) |
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Impact of moist processes on the predictability of monsoon depressions
15'
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Sourav Taraphdar (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India) |
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Use of the Eta model for operational weather forecasting by ilMeteo, Padova, and Weather to Umbrela, Belgrade
30'
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Antonio Sano and Ivan Ristic (ilMeteo, Padova, Italy, Weather2Umbrella, Belgrade, Serbia) |
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Examples from the ‘SINTA’ project: IPCC Climate Change scenario: Dynamical downscaling
30'
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Vladimir Djurdjevic (University of Belgrade, Serbia) |
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1961-1990 climate simulations over South America using Eta Model
30'
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Sin Chan Chou et al. (CPTEC/INPE, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Brazil) |
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Aerosol cloud interactions in ICLAMS system
30'
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George Kallos (University of Athens, Greece) |
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Towards optimized weather prediction over the south-eastern Europe-eastern Mediterranean region
30'
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Simon O. Krichak (Tel Aviv University, Israel) |
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Coffee Break 30'
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Leonardo Bldg. - Lobby |
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Comparison of the Eta and Davies' lateral boundary schemes 15'
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K. Velijovic et al. |
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A sensitivity of a MAP IOP 15 event to the estimated uncertainties in the upper-level dynamical factors
15'
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Kristian Horvath (Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia; and M. D. M. Vich, B. Ivancan-Picek, and R) |
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Challenges and benefits of assimilation of the future satellite radiances in cloudy scenes into regional weather forecast models
30'
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Dusanka Zupanski, et al. (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO) |
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The correction of forecast errors based on Model Output Statistics (MOS): The impact of initial condition and model errors
30'
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Stéphane Vannitsem (Royal Meteorological Institute, Belgium) |
| Maintained by: The CDS Support Team (Bugs and reports) |
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