Start Time:

4 August 2008 at 08:30

Ends On:

15 August 2008

Location:

Trieste - Italy

Venue:

AGH (Giambiagi Lecture Hall)

Organizer(s):

TTA Directors: J. Shukla, I-S Kang. Local Organizer: J.H. Yoo. Workshop Director: F. Molteni. Local Organizer: A. Tompkins

Description:

TTA: Seasonal Predictability in Tropical Regions
(Directors: J Shukla, In-sik Kang; Local Organizer: J.H. Yoo)

The 2008 TTA will focus on seasonal predictability in the tropical regions, with the following aims:
1) Provide an updated overview of current research on the seasonal predictability and associated background knowledge;
2) Illustrate the state-of-art operational and experimental activities on seasonal predictions from different institutions world-wide and the availability of such forecasts for developing countries;
3) Support knowledge and know-how in the development of seasonal prediction systems for improvement of seasonal prediction activity in developing countries;
4)Co-ordinate co-operation between the research and operational groups of the developing countries through laboratory projects set up based on the use of selected datasets from seasonal forecasting centers for regional diagnostics and applications of individual countries.

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Workshop on Multi-scale predictions of the Asian and African summer monsoon
(Directors: F. Molteni; Local Organizer: A. Tompkins)

The aim of the activity is to review the state-of-the-art regarding predictions of the South/East Asian and West African summer monsoon systems, with emphasis on indices of rainfall anomalies, over a variety of time-scales.

The Workshop will specifically address issues such as:
- for what regions and time window can statistical models provide useful information on monsoon rainfall?
- up to what lead time can the onset of the tropical monsoon systems be predicted by ensemble prediction systems?
- have dynamical forecasts of phenomena such as MJO and tropical cyclones improved?
- what is the skill and reliability of multi-model seasonal forecasts of summer monsoon indices for Asia and Africa?
- can predictions by one-tier coupled models be improved by statistical or dynamical downscaling?
- can monsoon predictions be improved by techniques to reduce the climate drift (and the consequent 'initialization shock') of coupled models?
- is the current level of skill in seasonal forecasts enough for agricultural, hydrological or disease prevention applications?
- how should climate change be taken into account in the design and validation of forecast systems for the tropics?

Material:

• List Of Participants (HTML)
• List Of Participants (PDF )
• Programme (PDF )
• announcement
• On-line_Application
• web_page