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Category: List of Bases 2007 2007 ICTP activities in Trieste ICTP activities in Trieste
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lecture

Start Time:

1 October 2007 at 09:00

Ends On:

13 October 2007

Location:

Trieste - Italy

Venue:

AGH (Kastler Lecture Hall)

Organizer(s):

Directors: V.I. Keilis-Borok, G.F. Panza, A.A. Soloviev

Material:

Monday, 1 October 2007

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:30
OPENING
30'


  10'
Prof. V. Keilis-Borok  (International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
  10'
Prof. G.F. Panza  (University of Trieste; The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics)
  10'
Prof. A. Soloviev  (International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
09:30
09:45
Break
15'
09:45
10:30
Prediction of Critical Phenomena: Four Paradigms
45'
Prof. V. Keilis-Borok
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:30
12:00
REGISTRATION
01h30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
10:30
12:00
Registration Formalities (Fermi Building)
01h30'
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
A Perspective Electric Earthquake Precursor
45'
Prof. M. Caputo
Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza
14:15
14:25
Break
10'
14:25
15:10
Fault Populations Across the Brittle-plastic Transition
45'
Dr. C. Narteau
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
15:10
15:20
Break
10'
15:20
16:05
What Do We Know about Earthquakes and Their Sequences?
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
18:00
Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises
01h30'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
18:00
19:30
GROUP A - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
01h30'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Tuesday, 2 October 2007

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Synchronization in Coupled Complex Systems from a Few Coupled Ones to Networks with Complex Topology. Part I
45'
Prof. J. Kurths
Interdisciplinary Center for Dynamics of Complex Systems, Universitaet Potsdam
09:45
09:55
Break
10'
09:55
10:40
Synchronization in Coupled Complex Systems from a Few Coupled Ones to Networks with Complex Topology. Part II
45'
Prof. J. Kurths
Interdisciplinary Center for Dynamics of Complex Systems, Universitaet Potsdam
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Measuring Variability of an Earthquake Sequence
50'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
15:45
Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises
02h15'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
15:45
16:15
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:15
17:00
Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises
45'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
17:00
18:30
GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
01h30'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
18:30
19:00
Break
30'
19:00
21:00
Get Together
02h00'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Terrace)
Wednesday, 3 October 2007

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
A Limited Power-law for the Aftershock Decay Rate. Part I
45'
Dr. C. Narteau
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
09:45
09:55
Break
10'
09:55
10:40
A Limited Power-law for the Aftershock Decay Rate. Part II
45'
Dr. C. Narteau
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Modeling of Block and Fault Systems of the Geodynamic Active Vrancea Zone
50'
Prof. D. Stanica
Institute of Geodynamics, Romanian Academy of Sciences
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Complex Systems: An overview. Part I
45'
Prof. A. Correig
Universitat de Barcelona
14:15
14:30
Break
15'
14:30
15:15
Complex Systems: An overview. Part II
45'
Prof. A. Correig
Universitat de Barcelona
15:15
15:45
Coffee Break
30'
15:45
17:30
GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
01h45'
A.Egorkin, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
17:30
17:45
Break
15'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
17:45
19:30
GROUP A - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
01h45'
A.Egorkin, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Thursday, 4 October 2007

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Specific Electromagnetic Approaches Related to the Short-term Precursors of the Intermediate Depth Earthquakes
45'
Prof. D. Stanica
Institute of Geodynamics, Romanian Academy of Sciences
09:45
09:55
Break
10'
09:55
10:40
Entering Prediction Research: Learning by Doing
45'
Prof. V. Keilis-Borok
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
The Lithosphere as a Complex System
50'
Prof. A. Correig
Universitat de Barcelona
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Seismic Melts and Earthquake Mechanics. Part I
45'
Prof. G. Di Toro
Università di Padova
14:15
14:25
Break
10'
14:25
15:10
Seismic Melts and Earthquake Mechanics. Part II
45'
Prof. G. Di Toro
Università di Padova
15:10
15:20
Break
10'
15:20
16:05
Real Time Ground-base Monitoring System for Earthquakes and Associated Natural Hazards Assessment and Risk Mitigation
45'
Prof. D. Stanica
Institute of Geodynamics, Romanian Academy of Sciences
16:05
16:35
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:35
17:20
Pattern Recognition Methods and Algorithms
45'
Prof. A. Soloviev
International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
17:20
17:30
Break
10'
17:30
19:30
Pattern Recognition - Exercises
02h00'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
20:30
21:45
Pattern Recognition - Exercises
01h15'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Friday, 5 October 2007

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Long Memory Process. Part I
45'
Dr. F. Petroni
University of Liege
09:45
09:55
Break
10'
09:55
10:40
Long Memory Process. Part II
45'
Dr. F. Petroni
University of Liege
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Inverse Problems and Data Assimilation in Non-linear Earth Sciences
50'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
11:30
12:30
Dirac Medal Ceremony in honour of Peter Zoller
01h00'
To be held
Main Building Main Lecture Hall
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Precursory Activity. A Physical Approach
45'
Prof. A. Correig
Universitat de Barcelona
14:15
14:25
Break
10'
14:25
15:25
On Oscillations and Oscillators: Equilibrium Fluctuations and Volcanic Tremors
01h00'
Prof. A. Correig
Universitat de Barcelona
15:25
16:00
Coffee Break
35'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:00
18:15
GROUP A - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises
02h15'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
18:15
19:30
GROUP B - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises
01h15'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
20:30
21:30
GROUP B - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises
01h00'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
Saturday, 6 October 2007 (Saturday)

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Variational Data Assimilation. Part I
45'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
09:45
09:55
Break
10'
09:55
10:40
Variational Data Assimilation. Part II
45'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
10:50
Break
10'
10:50
11:40
Modeling of Block Structure Dynamics and Seismicity
50'
Prof. A. Soloviev
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
11:40
13:30
LUNCH
01h50'
13:30
18:00
Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Exercises
04h30'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Monday, 8 October 2007

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Quasi-reversibility Method for Data Assimilation. Part I
45'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
09:45
09:55
Break
10'
09:55
10:40
Quasi-reversibility Method for Data Assimilation. Part II
45'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Premonitory Transformation of Scaling in Complex Processes
50'
Prof. V. Keilis-Borok
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Earthquake Prediction: Problem and Practical Solutions
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
14:15
14:25
Break
10'
14:25
15:10
Block Structure Modeling of Seismisity and Geodynamics in Italian Seismoactive Region: Application in Different Space Scale
45'
Dr. I. Vorobieva
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
15:10
15:20
Break
10'
15:20
16:05
Block Structure Modeling of Vrancea: Study of Seismic Regime
45'
Dr. I. Vorobieva
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
19:30
GROUP A - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
03h00'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Tuesday, 9 October 2007

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Application of the Pattern Recognition Techniques to Earthquake-prone Areas Determination
45'
Prof. A. Soloviev
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
09:45
09:55
Break
10'
09:55
10:40
Applications of the Data Assimilation Methods in Geodynamics. Part I
45'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Applications of the Data Assimilation Methods in Geodynamics. Part II
50'
Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
12:00
14:00
LUNCH
02h00'
13:30
14:15
Prediction of a Subsequent Strong Earthquake
45'
Dr. I. Vorobieva
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
14:15
14:25
Break
10'
14:25
15:10
Spherical Block Model: Different Modifications. Part I
45'
Dr. V. Rozenberg
Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
15:10
15:20
Break
10'
15:20
16:05
Poster Session
45'
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
19:30
GROUP B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
03h00'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Wednesday, 10 October 2007

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
A Rational Complex Approach of Neo-deterministic Time-variable Seismic Hazard Assessment. Part I
45'
Prof. G.F. Panza
University of Trieste; The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
09:45
09:55
Break
10'
09:55
10:40
A Rational Complex Approach of Neo-deterministic Time-variable Seismic Hazard Assessment. Part II
45'
Prof. G.F. Panza
University of Trieste; The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Spherical Block Model: Different Modifications. Part II
50'
Dr. V. Rozenberg
Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Practice of Predicting Large Earthquakes on Global and Regional Scales
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
14:15
14:30
Break
15'
14:30
15:15
Premonitory Long-range Activation of Seismicity; Earthquake Chains
45'
Prof. P. Shebalin
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
15:15
15:45
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
15:45
17:30
GROUP B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
01h45'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
17:30
17:45
Break
15'
17:45
19:30
GROUP B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
01h45'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
Thursday, 11 October 2007

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Reverse Tracing of Precursors. Part I
45'
Prof. P. Shebalin
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
09:45
09:55
Break
10'
09:55
10:40
Reverse Tracing of Precursors. Part II
45'
Prof. P. Shebalin
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
Experiment in Prospective Earthquake Prediction Using Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) Algorithm
50'
Prof. P. Shebalin
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Spherical Block Model. Numerical Experiments
45'
Dr. V. Rozenberg
Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
14:15
14:25
Break
10'
14:25
15:10
Earthquake Forecast/Prediction: Problem of Verification
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
15:10
15:20
Break
10'
15:20
16:05
Earthquake Forecast/Prediction: Accuracy and Limitations
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
19:30
GROUP A - The Algorithms M8 and Mendocino Scenario - Computer Exercises
03h00'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
20:30
21:45
GROUP A - The Algorithms M8 and Mendocino Scenario - Computer Exercises
01h15'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
Friday, 12 October 2007

Room: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall

09:00
09:45
Earthquake Catalogs for Intermediate-term Predictions and Seismic Hazard Analysis
45'
Dr. A. Peresan
University of Trieste
09:45
09:55
Break
10'
09:55
10:40
Experiment in Intermediate-term Middle-range Earthquake Prediction in Italy and Surrounding Regions
45'
Dr. A. Peresan
University of Trieste
10:40
11:10
Coffee Break
30'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
11:10
12:00
A Nonlinear Approach to Chemistry
50'
Prof. R. Hoffmann
Cornell University
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
14:15
Premonitory Seismicity Patterns for Moderate Size Earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius
45'
Dr. A. Peresan
University of Trieste
14:15
14:25
Break
10'
14:25
15:10
Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes and Seismic Hazard Assessment
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
15:10
15:20
Break
10'
15:20
16:05
Similarity and Differences in Sequences of Earthquakes, Solar Flares, and Starquakes
45'
Prof. V. Kossobokov
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy
16:05
16:30
Coffee Break
25'
Room: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
16:30
19:30
GROUP B - The Algorithms M8 and Mendocino Scenario - Computer Exercises
03h00'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
19:30
20:30
DINNER
01h00'
20:30
21:45
GROUP B - The Algorithms M8 and Mendocino Scenario - Computer Exercises
01h15'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
Saturday, 13 October 2007 (Saturday)

Room: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.

09:00
12:00
Final Consultations, Distribution of the Software
03h00'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
12:00
13:30
LUNCH
01h30'
13:30
16:00
Final Consultations, Distribution of the Software
02h30'
A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, A.Mostinski, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
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