THE ROLE OF SYSTEMS MODELING IN POLICY: A STUDY OF KEOLADEO NATIONAL PARK (KNP) INDIA
ICTP (Main Building Lecture Room C)
(Institute of Economic Growth, University of Delhi, Delhi, India)
P.D.N. Srinivasu (Department of Mathematics, Andhra University)
Eco-systems often support species that compete with each other for several resources or for one common resource. They also often exhibit characteristics that point towards the co-existence of a number of nested ecosystems. One or the other of these ecosystems could dominate, depending on the nature of the inter-relationships between species. However, social and economic considerations may want to drive the eco-system into a direction that is perceived to have more îeconomic valueî and may design policy to do so using partial information.
In the case of the Keoladeo National Park (KNP) in India, for example, a large part of policy in the last thirty or so years is driven by the need to see that the birds (due to their tourism related value) continue to breed or migrate in large numbers. Management decisions to this end have been taken with partial information. Focusing initially on the Park as a wetland with tourism value emanating from birds and two kinds of biomass, this paper examines the nature of the equilibrium states into which the park can fall with different values of the parameters governing the behavior of the state variables.
The three state variables of our model good biomass, bad biomass and the bird population, in particular their values at alternative equilibrium points capture graphically the succession of ecosystems possible in the KNP. Our analysis indicates that in order to maintain bio-diversity in terms of aquatic species diversity or even the presence of the flagship species ( the Siberian crane), policies need to focus on variables defining the relative water and space competition among the species. If instead, they are limited to removal or preservation of one or the other kind of biomass, the approach is static and may be counter-productive from the viewpoint of economic benefit or liveli-hoods gained in the long run. The modeling is of value in illustrating the possibility of the existence of multiple equilibriums and providing pointers towards the reasons behind the failure of policies designed in the absence of this knowledge.
KEY WORDS: Multiple Equilibriums, System characteristics, Parameter Values, Species Diversity; Inter-specific competition; Keoladeo National Park(KNP) ; Policy as Perturbation, Tourism Value.
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